OP HANS CHART ROOM — WEEK AHEAD

Big Data, Big Earnings, Big Expectations.

CPI, PPI, bank earnings, TSM, ASML, Netflix, Fed testimony, and monthly options expiration. Not exactly a sleepy summer week.

Week of July 13–17, 2026

A Note from Hans

The market comes into this week in a familiar position: strong, calm on the surface, and increasingly crowded underneath. The S&P finished last week near 7,575, up 1.23%. Nasdaq added 1.7%. That sounds clean. Under the hood, the tape was anything but boring — oil jumped, yields rose, semis whipped around violently. And the broader market held near the top of its two-month range.

The market has had plenty of excuses to break. So far, it hasn’t. That $700 QQQ level held like a champ. But this week raises the bar. CPI Tuesday. PPI Wednesday. Bank earnings Tuesday morning. ASML Wednesday. TSM Thursday. Netflix Thursday. Retail sales Thursday. Fed Chair Warsh on Capitol Hill both Tuesday and Wednesday. Monthly options expiration Friday. Other than that, quiet week haha. I still think some semiconductor/cloud/token spend questions have been raised lately. Again, not to force the issue because betting against this buildout has been suicide. But I love a good exhaustion trade and so I’ll continue to look for a fade in both semis and some Mags. Meta? Remember I rightly hated it for about a year and then went long 2 months ago? I’m not sure I love their cloud idea but I won’t argue with that chart right now. Tickle me skeptical, long and hedged.

The bigger core question that may have to keep us in glass half-full mode: can earnings keep carrying the market while inflation, rates, oil, and semiconductor volatility all compete for attention? The bull case is still intact — forward earnings at record highs, strong margins, broadening leadership beyond mega-cap tech. But expectations are already high. When the bar is set in the clouds, “good enough” may not be good enough.

And over the weekend, the Iran situation escalated. The US resumed strikes after Tehran attacked a container ship in Hormuz. Weekend futures are negative. That’s the backdrop for Monday’s open. Let’s look at the charts.

$SPX — Weekly

S&P 500: Near the Top of the Range.

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SPX closed the week at 7,575, up 1.23%. The weekly chart shows the index sitting near the highs of its two-month consolidation. That is the important part — we’ve had every excuse to break lower over the last several weeks. Oil jumping on Iran, rates rising, semis whipping around. And the index has absorbed all of it.

The weekly structure remains a coil pattern with the S&P stronger than QQQ and SMH. Coils resolve. When they resolve to the upside near the top of a range, they tend to accelerate. When they fail near the top, they tend to disappoint hard. This week has the CPI print, PPI, TSM earnings and monthly options expiration. Any of those is a plausible catalyst.

Hans’s take: The market has earned the benefit of the doubt near the highs. But the coil at the top of the range is a coin flip until this week’s data proves it.

$SPX — Daily

The Daily Coil Is Getting Tighter.

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Zoom in from the weekly and the daily coil is even clearer. SPX has been consolidating around the 7,500 area since mid-May. That’s eight weeks of sideways action after a strong run. From a technical standpoint that’s constructive — the market is digesting, not distributing.

But this is where positioning matters more than pattern. Expectations for Q2 earnings are already high — more than 20% year-over-year growth. That means the market may not reward “good enough.” It needs beat, guide, and confidence. The real risk this week isn’t earnings being bad. The risk is earnings being merely fine.

Hans’s take: Coil resolution is coming. The direction depends on whether inflation cools and earnings excite. Neither is guaranteed.

QQQ — Daily

Nasdaq +1.7% Week: Leading, But With a Weaker Coil.

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QQQ gained 1.7% on the week — the strongest of the major US indexes. XLK added 2.9%, SMH added 2.7%. The Nasdaq has been the leadership. That’s the bull case in one sentence: mega-cap tech is still driving the tape.

But BPT flagged something worth watching: QQQ and SMH show weaker coil patterns than SPX. That’s the divergence. The strongest weekly sector performance is coming from the group with the technically weaker structure. That’s the sign of a crowded trade running on momentum. TSM Thursday and ASML Wednesday will test whether that momentum has substance.

Hans’s take: Leading on the tape, weaker on the chart. Great combination for volatility.

$VIX — Daily

VIX at 2026 Lows: The Calm Above the Storm.

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The VIX closed the week at its lowest level of 2026. On the surface, that says investors are calm. Complacency is often mistaken for confidence in tapes like this.

The mismatch: Nasdaq volatility is still elevated relative to SPX volatility, and semiconductor volatility is downright hot. The expected weekly move in SMH is roughly 5.5%, versus about 1.1% for SPY. That is massive dispersion. Index vol is low. Single-name event vol is not. That combination is exactly where a benign-looking market gets a sudden air pocket.

Hans’s take: Low VIX with hot semiconductor vol is not the same as low risk. It’s risk hiding in single-name earnings reactions.

SMH:QQQ — Daily Ratio

Semiconductors vs. QQQ: Still Underperforming the Broader Tech Group.

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This is the dispersion signal in a single line. The ratio of semiconductors to the Nasdaq shows semis still underperforming the broader tech complex despite last week’s bounce. Semiconductor leadership is what powered this bull cycle. When it fades, the AI infrastructure thesis needs a different anchor.

TSM reports Thursday morning. ASML reports Wednesday morning. Both sit at the heart of the AI supply chain. If they deliver strong orders, guidance, and capex commentary, this ratio can turn back up and the semi leadership re-asserts. If either wobbles, crowded positioning gets tested and this ratio breaks lower.

Hans’s take: The most important earnings report this week may not be a US mega-cap. It may be Taiwan Semi.

$TNX — Weekly

10-Year Yield: The 4th Wave Coil.

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TNX gained 1.9% on the week — a meaningful move. The weekly chart shows a 4th wave bullish coil pattern, which is BPT’s technical read. A break higher from here would confirm the “higher for longer” narrative that the June FOMC minutes hinted at — nine of eighteen officials penciled in at least one rate hike this year. That is not the story the market wanted to hear.

The complication for this week: CPI on Tuesday, PPI on Wednesday, Fed Chair Warsh testimony both days. Any hot number and this coil resolves higher. Rates rising because inflation is sticky is a different animal than rates rising because growth is strong. The market can handle one. It struggles with the other.

Hans’s take: The rate coil is set to break one way or the other this week. CPI is the trigger.

HYG — Daily

Credit Held Flat: The Canary Isn’t Screaming.

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HYG was flat on the week. On a week where TNX was up 1.9%, that’s the important tell. Credit is not cracking. When rates rise and credit holds steady, you’ve got the soft-landing setup that keeps risk assets bid.

This is why financials worked last week — Banks +1.68%, Brokers +2.9%, XLF +0.16%. Rates up + credit stable is the environment that lets banks earn on the spread without eating credit losses. Watch HYG closely this week alongside CPI. If credit starts to break with rates, the whole picture changes.

Hans’s take: HYG flat is the tell that the rate move isn’t stressing the system yet. Watch it if CPI runs hot.

SMH — Daily

Semis +2.7%: Bouncing, But BPT Sees a Possible H&S.

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SMH gained 2.7% on the week after the Samsung earnings scare early and the Micron and SK Hynix news later. That is not the price action of a broken sector. But BPT flagged something worth respecting: the possibility of a lower-high right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders pattern forming on this bounce.

Some semi names were down more than 25% from recent highs before bouncing. That kind of reset can play out two ways: the shakeout clears weak hands and sets up another squeeze higher, or the bounce fails because positioning is still too crowded. This week decides. TSM Thursday is the tell.

Hans’s take: If TSM delivers and semis rip on the news, we’re back to squeeze mode. If TSM disappoints and this bounce fails, the H&S starts to look real.

KBE — Daily

Banks: The Real Test Starts Tuesday Morning.

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Banks were up +1.68% on the week. Not the strongest sector, but constructive. And Tuesday morning brings JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and Goldman. Five of the biggest earnings prints of the year in a single session.

Three things to watch: credit quality (is loan behavior holding?), net interest margins (are higher rates helping or hurting?), and capital markets activity (is risk appetite coming back?). The market wants to hear that credit is fine, loan demand is stable, and IB activity is improving. If any of those disappoint on a hot CPI print, banks get hit twice — on the earnings and on the multiple.

Hans’s take: Banks are the first real earnings read of the season. They set the tone for the AI infrastructure prints later in the week.

XLE — Daily

Energy +2.9%, OIH +5.75%: Quiet Leadership Getting Louder.

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Energy was one of the strongest sectors last week — XLE +2.9%, OIH +5.75%. That is not consumer discretionary or homebuilders getting bought. That is a rotation into the sector that benefits from geopolitical stress AND sticky inflation. Both are on the table right now.

The Iran situation escalated over the weekend with the US resuming strikes after Tehran attacked a container ship in Hormuz. Weekend futures are negative. Oil is likely to gap higher Monday. If that spills into equities, the tape gets defensive fast. But energy names have already been leading — they’re priced for some of this. The interesting question is whether the geopolitical premium adds to what’s already been building.

Hans’s take: Energy leadership is the quiet inflation hedge. If the Iran situation stays hot, this trade doesn’t fade.

$BTCUSD — Daily

Bitcoin: Bullish Continuation Off Positive Divergence.

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Bitcoin closed the week at $63,796, up 0.33%. Ethereum gained 0.27% to $1,789. Both continue to work higher off the daily and weekly MACD/RSI positive divergences BPT called two weeks ago. That call worked.

The bigger question for BTC into this week: is it going to trade as a risk-on liquidity beneficiary (good CPI = up) or as an alternative asset play (sticky inflation = up)? Both cases point the same direction right now. That’s why it’s working. Watch how it handles any hot CPI print — that’s the tell on which narrative is really driving.

Hans’s take: BTC and ETH are on a bullish continuation. Positive divergence played out. Stay long into the news.

Key Events This Week

Monday

Fed speakers: Bowman, Waller

Tuesday

CPI at 8:30 AM ET · Fed Chair Warsh testimony 10:00 AM ET · Bank earnings: JPM, BAC, WFC, C, GS · China Q2 GDP, industrial production, retail sales · Fed speakers: Barr, Goolsbee, Cook

Wednesday

PPI at 8:30 AM ET · ASML earnings before the open · Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, J&J earnings · Warsh testimony 10:00 AM ET · Beige Book 2:00 PM ET · Fed speakers: Williams, Cook, Musalem · Bank of Canada decision

Thursday

Initial jobless claims · Retail sales at 8:30 AM ET · TSM earnings before the open · UNH, GE earnings · Netflix earnings after the close · Fed speakers: Logan, Schmid, Jefferson

Friday

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 10:00 AM ET · Industrial production · July monthly options expiration 4:00 PM ET

Bottom Line

The uptrend is intact. So is the setup for a fast move. SPX is near the top of the range. VIX is at 2026 lows. Semiconductor vol is elevated. Earnings expectations are high. Inflation data is back. The Fed is talking. Monthly opex on Friday.

This is not a bearish setup by default. It’s a “respect the range, respect the event risk, don’t confuse low VIX with low risk” setup. If CPI behaves and TSM delivers, the market squeezes higher. If either disappoints, the crowded parts move fast.

The plan is simple. Stay constructive, but don’t get sloppy.

Trade smart, stay hedged.
Hans

This content is for educational and informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss.